Just to emphasize once more the importance of on-sight observation and local contacts for conflict early warning, The Aegis Trust recently released this early warning:

The Aegis Trust has received credible eyewitness reports that Janjaweed militia from the Maalia and Rizeigat tribes, estimated to be 300-strong, travelling in jeeps and armed with kalashnikovs, are massing outside the Darfur town of Muhajeriya. Reliable sources on the ground confirm that these are the same militia responsible for the attack on Muhajeriya in October 2007. According to eyewitness testimony, in the past week they have destroyed the village of Sinet, together with several smaller villages in its vicinity, to the northeast of Muhajeriya. On Monday, a UNAMID patrol in the area where the Janjaweed has been sighted was fired upon and one peacekeeper was killed. Sources on the ground are anticipating an assault on Muhajeriya by the militia in the next few days.

Do we really need sophisticated, data-intensive quantitative conflict models?