Very interesting website you have here. I am a grad student at the Korbel School in Int’l Studies, at the U of Denver, taking a class in forecasting. As my paper for the class is based on forecasting political instability, I plan to access this website extensively over the coming weeks. I am curious if you know of any programs accessible over the internet that forecast political instability.
Hi Josiah, thanks for your note. I’d recommend looking at Bruno de Mesquita’s work on forecasting as well as Nassim Taleb’s (see in particular “The Black Swan”) and Jack Goldstone’s work as well. This website may also be of interest:
Like Josiah, let me start with by apprciating the web site for providing such indepth ideas. I am a post graduate student of Friedensforschung und Internationale Poltik at the uni of Tuebingen/ Germany. I am on my last semester preparing for my gradthesis. My Idea is to access the CEWARN in IGAD, its effectivness and its role in conflictmanagement of the region. Till now I have managed to read some works on the subject of conflict prognostation. And Like Josiah, I am going to use and share my ideas. I would appriciate your help.
Many thanks for your note and great to read that you are interested in assessing CEWARN. Please email me: patrick dot meier at tufts dot edu with specific questions and I’ll do my best help.
I’m Croos from sri lanka. I’m currently working at FCE which works with an third generation early warning system. i also handle the system and involve in the Early Warning team. I have been following this conversation on EW&ER and the concept of a 4th generation system.
I would like to study more about the EW & ER system and specialized in this field. is there any opportunity to do a masters or post graduate degree in this field. I did my first degree in sociology in University of Peradeniya. is there any chance of getting scholarship for such studies. It would help me to learn more about this field which is more important in the coming years in sri lanka.
Many thanks for your email and great to know you’re working at FCE. I have not found any masters/post-graduate degrees in conflict early warning but would recommend the Institute for Conflict Analysis at George Mason:
Please email me and I will put you in touch with the Dean of the Institute. I will also send you a copy of the syllabus I developed for a course on conflict early warning.
Just like I mentioned above, I am a post grad student writting my thesis in University of Tuebingen ( germany). I am trying to convince my professors to work on CEWARN. My Idea is to write a discriptive ( on genesis of the organization, institution and indicator formation and evaluation etc) and a explanatory ( effectivness and as to why and what the factors are, that contributed to it) approches.
The scepticism from part of my institution ( a known university with Institutionalist approch) is weather we can measure the effectiveness of such a system ( CEW) and if there are adequate theoretical framework to begine with. what they would eager to see is, to analyse the institution and hence try to answer the research question: why states cooperate ? ( a classic institutionalist approch) . I would be Grateful to read your opinions on that.
9 responses so far ↓
Josiah // April 10, 2009 at 3:58 am |
Hello-
Very interesting website you have here. I am a grad student at the Korbel School in Int’l Studies, at the U of Denver, taking a class in forecasting. As my paper for the class is based on forecasting political instability, I plan to access this website extensively over the coming weeks. I am curious if you know of any programs accessible over the internet that forecast political instability.
Patrick Philippe Meier // April 10, 2009 at 3:23 pm |
Hi Josiah, thanks for your note. I’d recommend looking at Bruno de Mesquita’s work on forecasting as well as Nassim Taleb’s (see in particular “The Black Swan”) and Jack Goldstone’s work as well. This website may also be of interest:
http://www.forecastingprinciples.com
Would love to read your paper when you’re done!
Temesghen Kubrom // June 4, 2009 at 5:47 pm |
Hallo,
Like Josiah, let me start with by apprciating the web site for providing such indepth ideas. I am a post graduate student of Friedensforschung und Internationale Poltik at the uni of Tuebingen/ Germany. I am on my last semester preparing for my gradthesis. My Idea is to access the CEWARN in IGAD, its effectivness and its role in conflictmanagement of the region. Till now I have managed to read some works on the subject of conflict prognostation. And Like Josiah, I am going to use and share my ideas. I would appriciate your help.
Temesghen K.
Patrick Philippe Meier // June 6, 2009 at 6:02 pm |
Hi Temesghen,
Many thanks for your note and great to read that you are interested in assessing CEWARN. Please email me: patrick dot meier at tufts dot edu with specific questions and I’ll do my best help.
Croos // June 7, 2009 at 8:17 am |
Dear Sir,
I’m Croos from sri lanka. I’m currently working at FCE which works with an third generation early warning system. i also handle the system and involve in the Early Warning team. I have been following this conversation on EW&ER and the concept of a 4th generation system.
I would like to study more about the EW & ER system and specialized in this field. is there any opportunity to do a masters or post graduate degree in this field. I did my first degree in sociology in University of Peradeniya. is there any chance of getting scholarship for such studies. It would help me to learn more about this field which is more important in the coming years in sri lanka.
looking forward your reply.
Best regards
Croos
Patrick Philippe Meier // June 7, 2009 at 1:04 pm |
Dear Croos,
Many thanks for your email and great to know you’re working at FCE. I have not found any masters/post-graduate degrees in conflict early warning but would recommend the Institute for Conflict Analysis at George Mason:
http://icar.gmu.edu
Please email me and I will put you in touch with the Dean of the Institute. I will also send you a copy of the syllabus I developed for a course on conflict early warning.
All the best,
Patrick
Patrick Philippe Meier // June 7, 2009 at 7:37 pm |
Hi All, I’ve just written a blog post entitled “Where to Study Conflict Early Warning?”:
http://earlywarning.wordpress.com/2009/06/07/where-to-study-conflict-early-warning/
I hope you find it useful.
Thanks,
Patrick
Temesghen Kubrom // July 27, 2009 at 5:28 pm |
Dear Patrick and readers,
Just like I mentioned above, I am a post grad student writting my thesis in University of Tuebingen ( germany). I am trying to convince my professors to work on CEWARN. My Idea is to write a discriptive ( on genesis of the organization, institution and indicator formation and evaluation etc) and a explanatory ( effectivness and as to why and what the factors are, that contributed to it) approches.
The scepticism from part of my institution ( a known university with Institutionalist approch) is weather we can measure the effectiveness of such a system ( CEW) and if there are adequate theoretical framework to begine with. what they would eager to see is, to analyse the institution and hence try to answer the research question: why states cooperate ? ( a classic institutionalist approch) . I would be Grateful to read your opinions on that.
Temesghen Kubrom
Patrick Philippe Meier // July 28, 2009 at 7:47 am |
Dear Temesghen, please contact me at patrick.meier@tufts.edu, and we’ll take it from there